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Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Weekly CPI adds 0.38 percent for Jan. 1-20

Russia's CPI growth reached 0.38 percent during the first 20 days of January, according to VTB Bank, citing Rosstat.

During Jan. 14-20, the average daily price growth ticked down to 0.017 percent from 0.020 percent in the previous week and 0.021 percent for Jan. 15-21, 2013.

The driving forces behind this CPI growth were onions at +3.6 percent WoW, potatoes at +2.1 percent WoW and vodka at +1.1 percent WoW.

"Over the last week, daily CPI growth slightly moderated owing to further deflation in egg prices, slower increases in potato prices and a much eased effect from the hikes on regulated tariffs and prices on Jan. 1 than we saw a week ago. All in all, CPI growth remained, in annual terms, at 6.3 percent YoY," Vladimir Kolychev and Daria Isakova, VTB Capital analysts, said. "Assuming average daily price growth of 0.017-0.018 percent during the remaining days of January as well as an increase in the tariffs for railway services (these items are not in the weekly CPI sample), we might see full-month CPI growth of 0.6-0.7 percent MoM, or 6.1-6.2 percent in YoY terms.

"This would mark the beginning of a disinflation trend on the back of food and tariff inflation converging with the core inflation on the back of a beneficial base effect, good harvest and a new tariff policy."