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Saturday, August 19, 2017

World Bank revises Russian growth outlook as oil prices fall further

The World Bank released revised predictions on Russian economic growth after recent developments in global oil markets.

The bank said that due to further declines in oil prices and continued global volatility, its new baseline scenario assumes an average of $78 per barrel in 2015, with gross domestic product expected to decline by 0.7 percent before growing by 0.3 percent in 2016.

“In the baseline scenario, investment is projected to contract for a third year in a row in 2015 because of continued uncertainty, restricted access to international financial markets by Russian companies and banks, and lower consumer demand,” World Bank Lead Economist for the Russian Federation Birgit Hansl said. “For companies in the natural resources sector, lower oil and commodity prices are expected to negatively affect investment decisions. For the first time since 2009, consumption is expected to decline, following a negligible expansion in 2014.”

More pessimistic scenarios present expectations based on a $70-per-barrel price that would have GDP shrink by 1.5 percent in 2015. The high-end scenario presents an $85-per-barrel price in which he country would avoid a recession.

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